The Berntsen National Security Review

Osama’s Inauguration Whimper

Surprising not one person in America, fugitive Al Qaeda terrorist leader Osama bin Laden has released an audio tape to coincide with the Inauguration of President-Elect Barack Obama.  It includes a call across the Middle East for support to the Palestinians in Gaza as well as pronouncements of political and economic doom for America.  

Bin Laden made no mention that just a week ago two of his top operatives, Usama al Kini and Sheikh Ahmad Salim Swedan—both Kenyan Nationals who participated in the East Africa attacks in 1998 and then in the Marriott Hotel bombing in Pakistan last year—had been hunted down and killed by a U.S. strike while attempting to conceal themselves in Southern Waziristan.  Nor was there mention that during Bin Laden’s seven year long camping trip (that began with his escape from Afghanistan in 2001) an array of other groups have eclipsed Bin Laden’s Al Qaeda in influence, money and operational tempo.   Groups like Lashkar-e Taiba  (LeT)  and the Taliban have as organizational goals the establishment of Islamic States in Kashmir and Afghanistan, respectively.  They pursue their own agendas.  Groups like the Haqqani Network and Hizb-e Islami Ghulbadin (HIG) are merely the action arms of the men that lead them and have only regional appeal. 

Having been smashed by CIA and coalition forces during the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and then hunted non-stop in Pakistan by Pakistani and U.S. intelligence, Bin Laden’s Al Qaeda has been reduced to attaching his operatives to disparate groups that fight alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan or operate alongside Pakistani militant organizations that seek to destabilize the central government of Pakistan.   Bin Laden’s role has changed from one of leading the world’s largest terrorist enterprise to one of hiding as a lonely fugitive with a camcorder.

Despite not having captured Bin Laden, the outgoing administration has correctly taken credit for successfully deterring additional catastrophic attacks on the U.S. mainland.   The incoming Obama administration would be wise to recognize that Bin Laden and Al Qaeda’s diminishment occurred because of constant application of aggressive operational initiatives and not as some inevitable result.   If the incoming administration fails to exercise itself aggressively against Bin Laden and Al Qaeda, the group’s return to an operational relevance will be inevitable and the consequences significant. 

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FEATURED ARTICLE on Anderson Cooper 360 (January 14, 2009)

The Day Bin Laden Crossed

Seven years ago to this day, 16 December 2001, Osama bin Laden escaped from Afghanistan by crossing the border into Pakistan and disappeared into Pakistan’s Federally Administer Tribal Areas (FATA) and the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP).  The U.S. clean-up operation in Afghanistan would—over subsequent years—gradually turn into a lethal counterinsurgency effort.  This past week, the Department of Defense announced its intention to add three Combat Brigades to the existing force structure in Afghanistan.  As the U.S. draws down combat forces in Iraq, Afghanistan will unquestionably move back into the headlines on a more regular basis.

In light of these events and with a keen eye trained to future threats, I have decided to establish The Berntsen National Security Review (Berntsen NSR), a simple and straightforward website through which I will be posting articles and commentary on a weekly basis and pressing those in positions of authority to pursue sound policies related to a variety of security topics in Afghanistan such as suppressing the Taliban, restoring order, and transitioning responsibility into the hands of the Afghan Security Forces. I also plan to write about an array of other national security concerns that jeopardize vital U.S. interests:

• Al Qaeda
• Iran
• Lebanese Hizballah
• Regional Terrorist Organizations
• International Kidnappings
• Rogue regimes in our hemisphere including Venezuela and Bolivia
• Drug Trafficking Organizations

Monitoring this complex network of threats is no less critical today than it was five, ten, or twenty years ago.  Indeed, for those who assumed an Obama Presidency would bring some level of respite to global terrorist violence, one need only look to the early December 2008 attacks in Mumbai for evidence of continued intentions by militant and terrorist groups.  I will do my best in the months ahead to provide insight into historic and emerging threats and global troubled spots through Berntsen NSR.

To learn more or to register for free weekly email updates, I ask that you visit www.berntsennsr.com.  There you will also find my biography, upcoming and previous media appearances, and information about my recently published books, The Walk-In and Human Intelligence Counterterrorism and National Leadership.

I wish you all a wonderful and safe holiday season and earnestly hope that you will find The Berntsen National Security Review useful and informative.

Very Respectfully,

Gary Berntsen